Tribune Says Serious Crimes Are Down
[October 16, 2008]

    “So far this year, serious crime is down 2 percent compared with 2007.”  …Kelly Rayburn, Oakland Tribune 10/16/08    

    “Mediocrity is climbing molehills without sweating.”  …Icelandic Proverb.

    Crisis:  “A highly volatile dangerous situation requiring immediate remedial action.”

    "When written in Chinese, the word 'crisis' is composed of two characters - one represents danger, and the other represents opportunity."   …John Fitzgerald Kennedy

    “Organizations can change the most when they are in crisis.”  …Chief Bratton, while at N.Y.P.D. 

     Kelly Rayburn is a good reporter; he is informative and likely to ascend in his profession.  However, his 10/16 article, “Oakland split on tax for cops," deserves comment because serious crime today is not down 2% as he mentioned.

     The real serious crimes, the violent ones against persons, the ones that strike fear in residents and visitors, include Murder, Rape, Robbery and Felony Assault...  These very offensive offenses are at record highs...  almost 4% higher than last year... 6,461 this year [10/16] versus 6,219 last year!  Chief Tucker told a listener at one public safety meeting that they might reach 9,000 this year.  This is highly unlikely, but maybe there's a purpose in the comment.  They are more likely to reach from 8,200 to 8,500.

     Oakland had a reputation for firing police chiefs for their inability to bring Oakland’s crimes down sufficiently.  Chief Joseph Samuels took over in 1993 from his predecessor Chief Hart, who had to grapple with the national scourge of perilous violent crime [the “crack epidemic”].  Samuels was fired in 1999, but not before he reduced violent crimes by -30%.  Chief Richard Word was then given the job, but ushered out at the end of 2004.  He had reduced the crime rate left by Samuels by -27%, but that wasn’t good enough.

    There were 758 Violent Crimes for every 100,000 inhabitants in the United States in 1992.  By 2004, Chief Word's last year at OPD, there were 466 Violent Crimes per 100,000 in the US.  The United States had enjoyed a reduction in Violent Crimes by -39%.  Oakland, in the same period, had reduced their Violent Crimes by -49%. 

    There were 467 Violent Crimes per 100,000 in 2007; the Violent Crimes rate for the American population as a whole since 2004 remained steady. However, in Oakland, the Violent Crimes during this period increased from 5,150 in 2004 to 7,900 in 2007.  This was an increase of +53% under the direction of Chief Tucker.

    Wayne Tucker was hired from the outside with barely a month into 2005.  Not experienced with OPD or urban policing in the Oakland context, his tenure at OPD has experienced a paradigm escalation in serious crimes, increasing successively and dramatically each of his four years.  Word left him with 5,150 violent crimes by the end of 2004.  After 11 months in office, Tucker’s first year totaled 5,519 violent crimes, an increase of 7%.  In 2006, Oakland had 7,599 Part 1 crimes, an increase of over 37%!  This was startling especially since California cities over 100k saw their violent crimes go down -14.3% and nationally the cities over 250k saw their crimes go down -13.4%.  Then in 2007, Oakland's violent crimes jumped to 7,900... for an increase of 53% over 2004.  In 2008, with the current YTD experience, we can expect an over 60% increase from 2004.   There is a chance we could reach 8,500.

    Never in Oakland's history has the acceleration of violent crimes been so dramatic.  In the 40 years that OPD has been keeping stats on violent crimes, there have been only three years that Oakland has exceeded 8,500 violent crimes... 1991, 1992, 1993.  That experience saw all cities across the U.S. suffer their highest rates also.  Chief Tucker’s current reign has seen Oakland’s violent crimes increase four years in a row, a feat seen only once in the past 40 years [1989-1992]. 

    1986 to 1993 were the highest violent crime years in Oakland.  We averaged 8,873 violent crimes annually during those eight years.  OPD had a staff of about 650 officers.  Chief Tucker’s current term will see anywhere from 8,200 to 9,000 violent crimes by the end of this year.  In four years, comparing with the benchmark of 2004 [Word’s 5,150 violent crimes] Chief Tucker will see a 4-year jump in violent crimes anywhere from +60% to +75%.  Comparing apples-to-apples, that eight year period of highest violent crimes experienced an average of +17% when viewing 4-year incremental increases. Even the highest 4-year jump in 1992 was only +24%. 
 
    Kelly Rayburn was technically correct, if not meaningfully accurate, that the “reported” overall serious [part 1] crimes have been reduced by -2%.  However, they include dramatically skewed [under-reported] property crimes that are seriously and significantly unreliable, and in Oakland's case they are incredible.  That's another reason to focus on violent crimes.  Sure, they are under-reported as well (not murders of course).  Rapes and robberies, and certainly all property crimes, are seriously under-reported for five substantial reasons... (1)  They are unfortunately too often regarded as an inevitable way of life in certain areas and sub-cultures.  (2)  The police machine is calibrated from the top with pressures to "keep the stats down."  (3)  The OPD has become grossly inefficient in responding and dealing with crimes.  (4)  The OPD cops and personnel are demoralized and de-motivated, and thus there is serious de-policing.  (5)  The citizens are demoralized with lack of confidence in the police response and interface mechanisms and thus see no advantage in reporting many crimes.

    The temperature of Oakland is violent, and alarmingly so.  We are in a crisis.  Firearms assaults are up +8%, miscellaneous assaults are up a startling +32%, and car-jacking, virtually nonexistent in prior years, are up 7% just over last year.
 
    Look at the Daily and Historical serious [Part 1] crime figures on-line at Oaklandpolice.com. 

    You will note, by merely adding the appropriate categories, that while violent crimes have gone up 3.8% this year over last [as of 10/16], that property crimes have gone down -4.9%.  However, since the volumes are disproportionate, it "seems" that "serious crimes" have gone down -2%.  Only in a molehill of mediocrity would anyone mix dramatically under-reported property crimes with escalating violent crimes to rationalize a drop in the overall crime rate, and rest on this as a laurel.

    Take a close look at the “property crimes.”  Oakland has experienced a combined 16,730 Burglaries, Thefts, and Auto Thefts thus far this year compared with 17,596 last YTD.  A simple extrapolation shows that we will end this year with probably around 21,000 such property crimes.  What is absolutely astounding, is that we are expected to believe that Chief Tucker's four years of office have seen the lowest cumulative "property crimes" as compared with any other four year period in Oakland's history.  The 36 year average (before Tucker) for property crimes in Oakland was 33,652 reported.  Tucker's 4 year average is 22,622.  We are asked to believe that Tucker has achieved a -33% drop in property crimes compared with the historical average... while violent crimes have set a record escalating pace.

    Look at the 10/16 Daily Crime Analysis Report.  We are asked to believe that Burglaries will be down -9% this year.  That means we will experience around 8,100 Burglaries.  In 1960 we had 3,998 Violent Crimes and 14,182 Burglaries.  This year we will have between 8,200 and 8,500 Violent Crimes and a “reported 8,125 Burglaries.  Would it be credible to say that these “serious crimes,” the Violent Crimes and the Burglaries combined, are down almost -10%... 2008 compared with 1969???  This is what happens when “mixing the numbers.”  In this example, Violent Crimes are up about +110%.  However, since the reported burglaries are down by over 6,000, the increase of +110% in violence is statistically mitigated -- and "overall serious crime" is down -10%.

    Chief Word was the Chief of Police in Oakland from 1999 through 2004.  He faced 7,819 violent crimes in the year left by his predecessor Chief Samuels.  Using that as his benchmark, he reduced violent crimes by -19% in his first partial year, -29% in his second year, -25% in his third year, -20% in his fourth year, -21% in his fifth, and -27% in his sixth.  Tucker, quite oppositely, was left 5,150 violent crimes by Word.  Tucker made the most dramatic, arbitrary, and uninformed changes in OPD's history. 

    He closed the Jail, abandoned the Beats, de-prioritized police response, threw out "old-fashioned" practices, decimated Investigations and Crime Analysis, ignored Measure Y, wasted $58 million in overtime in 2 years,  ignored and abandoned Youth, Vice, and Planning and Research,  failed and ruined the NSA, and told the OPD that morale was not important.   He fragmented the OPD with a return to the 1911 Precinct system, told officers they could move farther away with 12-hour shifts, talked up a pig-in-a-poke as being community policing, and memorialized what he’s been doing for three years as a “major reorganization” in his fourth that is only more of the same.  He got $7.7 million for "recruiting" new cops when they were already fully in the pipeline, and worse, he failed for three years to incrementally anticipate the need.  Tucker has never presented a "plan" with information, strategies, or tactics to deal with violent crimes.

    Tucker's methods, compared with the benchmark of Word’s last year, suffered Oakland a +7% increase in violent crimes during his first partial year (hired Feb 4), +48% in his second year, +53% in his third year, and between 60%-75% in his fourth year.  This all happened while Tucker had many more cops than ever before, plus much more overtime, "annuitants," and outside cops -- and many more authorized cops [per population] than all the 52 other California cities over 100,000 people [excepting SF and LA].  This escalation of violence also happened while Oakland's demographics became more favorable [higher education levels and income, lower unemployment, fewer people in crime ages and many more oldsters].  Astounding as this is, especially as it completely contradicts the much more positive experiences elsewhere in California and across the nation, what is even more incredible is that he has remained in office this long.

    It doesn't take rocket science or brilliant mathematics to see that Chief Tucker's leadership and management at OPD for the past four years has been disastrous.  The choir of mediocrity seeking to whistle a calm tune in the eye of a violent storm needs change.

ronoz