The Recruiting, Hiring, Training Debacle, and the Simple Solution
[November 20, 2008]

               Opening Comment

               Chief Tucker seems to be able to juggle 20 fiascos in the air in a single administration.  He is a martyr of illusion, in that he claims the stage he is forced to work on is fraught with blame, faults, and excuses; and yet somehow he manages to make a silk purse appear from a sow’s ear.  His red herring OPOA myth, his understaffing overstatements, his NSA ironic paradox failure, his apparition of community policing/area command, and his miraculous advent of 837 cops all join his repertoire of Machiavellian survival. 

               Welcome to Tucker’s OPD

               “Congratulations.  You have been selected for a position as a Police Officer Trainee with the Oakland Police Department.”  …”A position will be reserved for you in the 166th Recruit Academy on Monday December 8, 2008.”  [Letters sent to 44 new OPD hires]

                November was a busy month for OPD.  Signatures were obtained on “offers” that spelled out what was expected of the 44 successful Oakland Police Officer candidates who had been recruited with promises of rewarding careers.  They  had survived a long grueling process that 98% of applicants failed. 

               Nine a.m., Thursday, November 2008, OPD Vernon Auditorium. 

                The room was filled with excitement, eagerness, and accomplishment.  They had made it.  The formalities of entry into OPD would be attended to…  signing up for a medical plan, the retirement plan, and receiving the sacred OPD serial number cherished so highly by many proud generations.  This author, hired in 1965 carries 6354.  Chief Tucker, hired on February 6, 2005, holds 8604.  This batch of new recruits climbed up to 9100.  Each was thrilled to ascend an elevator to the Office of Personnel for their official OPD ID photos.   All who have joined the thin proud blue line of OPD, generations of them, recall the dignified, glorious and honored moments shared by these 44.

                The next step would be to gather in the evening for “Pre-Academy Orientation.”

                Six Thirty p.m., Thursday, November 13, Training Division Center, Fifth Floor.

                “We’re in deep trouble…”  “We have bad news…”

                So began the shock that would quiet the assembled newcomers.  Sergeant Arotzarena did most of the talking.  Deputy Chief Loman stood to add gravity to the fall of hopes and expectations.  It was said that because Prop NN didn’t pass, that these fine young people could not be afforded.  They were being un-hired, let go, dismissed, dropped.  This was incredible news, as they were all led to believe sufficiently to quit previous jobs,  and most made dramatic and changing arrangements to relocate.  Families and affairs were rearranged.  After all, they were invited to a career position with the finest police department in the country, serving the City that is to become a “Model City.”

                One man, frustrated beyond words, freshly recruited from the military, with a wife and three kids, just walked out.  The others were described as having their jaws hit the floor.  There was very little to say.  Wives, children, relatives, and close friends all shared the silent tears of humiliation and ruptured anticipation.  

                Comments Heard outside:

                “I just don’t understand…”

                “Even through all this I still want this job in the most way, but I don’t know if I can afford to wait.”          

               Friday, November 14, 2008              

               E-mails were sent out, signed by Sgt. Dom Arotzarena and Manager Belue, passing faint praise, “You were identified as the best of the best…”  They indicated they didn’t want to lose anyone, and that all should hopefully and dutifully wait for the next Academy which would come at some unforeseen time in the future as the need arose.  Oh yes, and the footnote was to please stay out of trouble in the meantime.

                On this same day, as 44 young candidates were so callously disregarded, OPD celebrated the graduation of 38 members of the 165th Recruit Academy.

               “This has been a historic achievement, a tremendous amount of work to get to this point, to finally get to the 803 officers mandated in 2004 by the voters in Measure Y, and even going beyond that to 837.”  Mayor Ronald V. Dellums

               First two years for Chief Tucker.

                Fiasco:  “…a complete and ignominious failure.”

                Chief Tucker knew when he was hired in early February 2005 that OPD now had an authorized strength, and budget allocations for, 803 police officers.  Newly enacted Measure Y comprised 63 of that number and such voter enthusiasm kindled new hope.  He knew also that on January 1, 2005 OPD had only 701 cops on the payroll.  Two years later, January 31, 2007, would be the City Council “drop dead” date by which Tucker’s recruiting efforts were promised to bring OPD to full strength.  The Chronicle reported on October 1, 2006…

               “’Police Chief Wayne Tucker said the department stands a good chance of meeting the City Council-imposed hiring deadline of Jan. 31, even with an average of more than three officers a month retiring.’”

               “’The applicants are out there,’ Tucker said.”

                After all, Tucker got another “headquarters” and additional staff specifically for recruiting.  The article mentioned above further stated… “Oakland also has $1.8 million in its budget to help it recruit, more than 10 times the amount available to San Francisco police.”  CA Edgerly was also given Council blessing for more “discretionary” recruiting funding.  Yes, Tucker, the “subject matter expert,” was given carte blanche.  Recruiters were spending over $130,000 per month.

                Unfortunately, on January 31, 2007, the “deadline” two years later, OPD had only 693 cops on the payroll, for a net loss of 8 cops since Tucker’s bright promises of heightened recruiting.

                On January 23, 2007, Tucker wrote that he would need $1.5 million more per year for his continuing recruiting efforts.

               Snake Oil Salesman or Miracle Worker?

                In reports signed by Tucker, on January 8, 2008, he predicted he couldn’t have more than 762 cops by 1-Jun-10;  by May 13, 2008, he estimated he would have 816 on 1-Dec-08.  On July 8, 2008, he was sure he would have 832 by 1-Dec-08.  So it appeared a slam-dunk that the Mayor’s promise of 803 cops by the end of the year was in the bag.  But what was the dramatic difference? 

               The Grab for Measure Y Money

                Tucker apparently found an immaculate conception for getting more cops in a desperate appeal written on February 22, 2008.  He convinced the new Public Safety Director and the Mayor that if he could get his hands on the $7.7 million that seemed to be rusting in the Measure Y coffers, he could give birth to thunderous results. 

                Tucker appeared giddy, as reported by the Chronicle on March 5… “Chief Tucker said last month that the high rate of officer retirements – about 60 a year – means that the department would need about $15 million more, on top of the $7.7 million, to maintain the 803-officer level.” This, coming from the man who outspent his previous two-year overtime budget by double, to $58 million, worth the annual salaries of about 400 new cops, while reigning over the fastest acceleration of violent crimes in Oakland’s history.

                The entire Executive Branch came on stage for Tucker’s act.  They appealed personally to the City Council, and even reluctant, suspicious, and unbelieving De La Fuente conceded to hand over the money to Tucker in a Council vote on March 4, 2008. After all, desperate times called for desperate measures.

                The label on Tucker’s expensive bottle of elixir said… “…an aggressive and creative recruiting campaign must begin immediately.”

               Really? …Or, Not Really.

                Deceit:  “…concealment or distortion of the truth for the purpose of misleading.”

                Fraud:  “…misrepresentation or concealment with reference to some fact.”

                Getting back to the 38 newly graduated officers on November 14, 2008, what does this monumental “achievement” that increased OPD to 837 paid cops mean?

                Let’s count backwards…  The Academy takes 26 weeks.  Figure a minimum of 12 weeks for the selection and qualification process, even at break-neck speed.  That means that the current 37 graduates were already in the pipeline of hiring, statistically and predictably, 38 weeks, at least, prior to this graduation.  Going back those 266 days means that Tucker had to know sometime before February 22 that he already had over 837 cops in the bag by November 14.  Repeat that…  When Tucker asked the City Council in writing, citing grave circumstances, that he needed $7.7 million in Measure Y money – he apparently already was over-recruited.

                In fact, on February 22, 2008, Tucker might have told the Mayor and the City Council that he was doing just fine with recruiting.  He actually could have cancelled most of the candidates for the 165th six months ago – as he did for the 166th  just last week. 

                Today, Tucker finds himself with 837 paid cops, when he is authorized only 803… plus he has just fired another 44 candidates ready to go.  Look for more to be fired as a coincidental budget expedient.

               Mediocrity or Incompetence?

                Mediocre:  “…a person of second-rate ability or value.”

                Incompetent:  “…Inadequate for or unsuited to a particular purpose or application.”

                Wayne Tucker had fabricated the notion of an “attrition” bubble that simply didn’t exist.  Reviewing his stack of monthly informational reports on recruiting activities is an exercise in random confusion.  However, his June 10, 2008 report has a small chart that indicates “ATTRITION 01Jan05-30Apr08.”  That’s forty months.

               Disability Retirements: 62
               Resignations:  55
               Service retirements:  44
               Terminations:  18
               Total 181
               Monthly Attrition:  5.58

               The math here might be revealing.  The total should be 179, and the attrition rate should be 4.48.  In other words, he has overestimated the attrition rate by 22%.  However his math reasoning, other audits of attrition dating back into the nineties indicate OPD should have expected something over 5 per month, and likely closer to 6 when all 803 are hired.  Personnel management is a science, not a dartboard.  So much for mediocrity.

               Some might label it incompetence if after the first two years of recruiting, during the highest escalation of violent crimes in history, and several millions of dollars thrown at the effort, that Tucker actually achieved a net loss of 8 cops.  Throw in the fact (using his numbers) that the attrition rate those two years was only about 3.6 [44 in 04-05; 43 in 05-06], and one has to wonder…

               But the real indictment against Tucker is his usual failure to offer a plan. The current hiring fiasco and training debacle is a case in point.  It is reported that Tucker is talking about holding the next Academy in July or August.  Think about this:  It will take 26 weeks of Academy training plus 15 weeks of Field training before even green cops can hit the streets and neighborhoods.  That means that we won’t have any more new cops until May 14, 2010! 

               What does this mean?  The current 165th Academy graduates aren’t ready to be cops on their own for another 15 weeks while they undergo Field Training.  Counting forward, there have been five cops fired just recently, and a lateral officer on probation is considered next to go.  So, the 837 that we have are already dwindled down to 831.  The expectation at the Department is that at least another 5 will be fired for the search warrants problems, and we can expect from past experience to lose maybe 3 during the FTO program.  That reduces our number further to 823.  If Tucker’s attrition factor of 5.58 per month for normal is correct, we can expect to lose another 20 cops by the time the 165th hits the street.  Therefore, it looks like we’ll have exactly 803 cops on the payroll, the authorized and budgeted number, by February 27, 2009.  So, folks, we will have 803 cops for a very brief moment, about 1,482 days after Wayne Tucker was hired.

               Chief Tucker’s Last Year? 

               It’s no secret that Chief Tucker needs five years at OPD to qualify for his second retirement, with PERS, after the ACSO.  If he retires on February 6, 2010, how many cops can we expect on OPD at his leaving?  Well, take Tucker’s attrition figure of 5.58 a month and we can expect a reduction of about 67… and OPD will have 736 sworn personnel.  It is almost a probability that another dozen or more will be terminated for conditions under pressure, so drop that number to 724.  Remember, the next Academy, the 166th, won’t put officers on the street until May of 2010.  By that time, there’s a good chance that OPD will be down to the same 701 cops after Tucker leaves as we had when he arrived.  If OPD suffers a morale-exodus under Tucker, and the attrition reaches 80 annually, OPD will have only 688 at his retirement party.  Yes, there might be an “attrition bubble,” but it’s not going to be due to normal retirement rates.  Good job, Chief.

               A serious sub-topic could be the brain drain of command personnel who have left early for loss of faith in OPD under Tucker.  The list is long.

               Sure, some of you might have heard that Tucker plans to squeeze in a lateral class (applicants from other depts.).   I haven’t included that because that program has been far from successful.  He got only 7 in 2008, 2 in 2007, 3 in 2006, and 7 in 2005, despite expensive bonuses and intensive recruiting.  OPD is losing a much higher rate to terminations alone.

               What was not included in the attrition figures is the universal anticipation that Tucker will fire a lot more cops.  That tends to raise attrition.  So does low morale.  We should expect retirements to remain relatively constant, but resignations and terminations will likely cause total attrition to exceed 80.

               What should be done… now?

               Proper planning with venturi pacing back in 2005 when Tucker first took his office could have given us 803 cops by the end of 2006.  We can still make this kind of sense starting today…

               Rescind the latest impetuous hiring/firing.  The 166th Academy should begin as scheduled on December 8, 2008.  They will not hit the streets for independent assignments until September 21, 2009.  In the intervening 311 days, our 837 cops as of last Friday will likely have dwindled to about 757.  You can guess what will happen to Measure Y deployments.  

               We should have “a plan” to carefully meter cops coming out of future Academies so as to have optimum correlation with the 803 level we want, with minimum impact on the budget.  We should do it with sustainability and within current budget and resources.  How?

               OPD has previously, within current staffing and budgets often held two academies simultaneously.  We routinely found the staff for two Training Academies running simultaneously when we had fewer than 700 cops and far less facilities, imagine what we can do with 803 cops?  [The author was a product of two concurrent Academies 40 years ago with only 654 cops on the payroll] 

                An Academy is 26 weeks long, and thus the same staff can conduct two academies per year.  OPD regularly staffs qualified personnel to run two academies concurrently, so stagger the second bi-annual academies.  In other words, evenly space the four Academies per year so we graduate a class every quarter.  This way, we will have sufficient new officers getting their badges pinned on proud chests every three months.  Now, we have to figure how many to schedule for each class to have sustainability.

                All planning involves qualified assumptions.  Assume that somehow morale is restored, and our attrition is around 6 cops per month, or 72 per year.  Assume also that we can get the dropout rate down to a manageable 20% from the academies by better recruiting standards and perhaps not so much boot-camp methods (94% are failed for physical-related testing).  Therefore we will need about 90 entering the academies per year.  Throw in another 10 for contingencies, and make it an even 100.  Each class will have 25 recruits enter and about five fail.  That’s 20 cops joining the active force every three months.  The quality and attention given to such small classes will pay off mightily.

                Keep in mind that this formula is meant to sustain a level of 803 cops.  There will have to be some tweaking in the early classes to develop that standard, but we have 44 outstanding cop-candidates that Tucker  just fired before their first day.  That’s a jumpstart. 

               Impact on the Budget?

                Careful and qualified planning is always budget oriented.  There will be a +/- factor, as the day before each graduating class we should have a theoretical optimum deficit of about 8 cops and the day after we would have a surplus of about 8.  With an attrition of 72 cops per year, that means we need actually 18 every 4 months.  So this plan has a tiny deviation, but it diminishes until it is at 803 cops exactly between each of four cycles.  That’s a lot better than the past four years when we’ve never had a surplus, and we bounced around from -42 at best, to -124 at the worst.

                We’ll have to cut back drastically in recruiting, of course, thus affording significantly less recruiting desperation and considerably better screening..

               Finding Money Now…

                Chief Tucker reported that his Recruit Academy program costs about $4.8 million a year.  A reasonable test would seem to indicate that if a recruit is paid about $5,400 a month, that his 26 week salary (as a POT) is $32,400.  Given the payroll “burden,” that escalates to about $41,000. The 44 member 166th “jumpstart” academy will cost $1.64 million (figuring 20% dropout evenly spread) before they revert to the sworn payroll.  That’s less than Tucker was given per year for recruiting when he suffered a two year net loss.  Besides, there’s hopefully something left of the $7.7 million Measure Y money he didn’t need, if they can find it.

                As for the regular “planned” schedule of 22 to 25 POT’s in each of four evenly spaced academies, culminating in 18 to 20 graduates every three months, the costs should be highly predictable.  Figure about $3.5 million as an annual cost for POT salaries to sustain an 803 level.  Stop spending money without real planning, and we’ll have more than we need. 

               Conclusion

               There’s a lot of apparent progress, and despairing false promise, in running on a treadmill backwards.

               You’ve just witnessed Wayne Tucker’s management skill sets.  In the opinions of many, his leadership qualities are exceedingly uninspiring as well.  But the paradox of seeming to blame Tucker personally, thus precipitating his defense by others, misses the point.  It is a distraction to view any Chief or senior executive as a personality, except if identifiable as an impact on operations.  Rather, we must focus on results and solutions.  The results have been miserable during the past four years, and the solution is not to perpetuate them.