Love Oakland and Live In It
[December 10, 2008]
               

            Introduction:

            During the last Mayoral campaign, Ronald Dellums talked about his vision of Oakland as a model city with a population of 600,000 people.  He was on the right track, but the train hasn’t left the station.  The key to Oakland’s future is to do everything possible to encourage population growth.

            This notion may not be popular with the NIMBY crowd, but we would all benefit from a greater Oakland.  Increased services, more cultural opportunities, expanding schools, diversified restaurants, grander parks and recreation, expanded infrastructure, and much more are the benefits of enhanced economics that come with greater population.  All economic advantages of scale can come into play exponentially when people enjoy moving into Oakland and staying.

            Oakland’s Population:
           
            Determining Oakland’s current population is a moving target, and we have blindfolds on the firing squad.  The Oakland City website directs one to the 2000 Census which says there were 399,484 Oakland citizens.  It also offers a link to ABAG, where the determination is that in 2006 the population was reduced to 377,256.  The Census Bureau figured that in 2007 Oakland’s population was reduced further to 358,829.  The FBI UCR figures Oakland to have had 396,541 in 2007.  The current Oakland Budget speaks to having 411,755 people in 2006.  The California Department of Finance paints Oakland as having 414,516 people in 2007 and 420,183 in 2008.

            The Reality:
           
            Anecdotally, one need only drive around Oakland, through downtown, along the commercial corridors, into the industrial areas, and by many vacant housing units to see that the energy of citizenry is noticeably diminished.  We place in-fill low-story housing structures along our precious waterfronts.  We are in such a hurry to get anything on our land gemstones, and so slow to allow growth, that development should be named de-development.
           
            One might be inclined to dismiss the overly optimistic population scenarios and regard as more likely the Census estimates that our population has been reduced to around 358,829.  Imagine the feelings of our 385,000 residents of 1950 who were so sure Oakland would grow up.  The reduction in population is corroborated by the school attendance figures; after all, it’s pretty tough to miss those numbers. 
           
            Notice that there are dramatic reductions at all grade levels.  Overall, our school population has reduced by about 26%, since 2000.

            Population Ages:
           
            Oakland has changed considerably in age groups in this decade.  Sociologists and urban planners should look at the following numbers immediately to conjure up their speculations as to the phenomenon and what the implications are for Oakland’s future.  Note the young people moving out and the older generations moving in. 

            Ethnicity and Diversity:

            Comments:
           
            The excitement Oaklanders feel about this City needs to be translated into action.  Yes, everyone has pride, interest, enthusiasm, optimism, and emotions while standing in front of a mirror chanting how great we are.  But, our mirror’s in the closet, and so are we about the realities. 
           
            The economic structure of our City is already feeling the effects of the population shifts.  The largest proportion of those leaving Oakland is our young people, who should be entering the workforce, beginning families, and enjoying our lifestyles. They are the ones who should be making up our economic engine.  They are the economic contributors.  The largest immigrant group in Oakland now is the older generation, the one that needs and wants more services. 
           
            It is safe to assume that the very dramatic changes in our population correlate specifically with the level of violent crimes in Oakland.  Violence has increased without parallel as to intensity and volume when compared with secular trends elsewhere and historical trends in Oakland.   The years 2005, 2006, and 2007 have rendered us virtually helpless as our OPD has been disintegrated and demoralized.  It is not enough to say that Public Safety is the “highest priority;” it must be the Foundation for all our priorities.  We must have a renewal of OPD.

            Where From Here?

            The Census Bureau doesn’t tell us what we already know all too well… that one of the largest clubs in America is “The I Used to Live in Oakland Club.”  We feel that there are a lot of people moving into Oakland, but unfortunately even more are moving out.  However, there are some hints in the figures to give us some insight and some hope if we can just get real.

            The numbers tell us that 46,235 householders moved into their homes within the past three years.  There are 166,700 households stipulated.  Therefore, 27.74% of the population in 2007 had moved into their homes in the three year period, 2005–2007.  Since everyone lives in a household, we can multiply 27.74% times the 372,247 average population during 2005–2007 [determined by US Census].  That’s 103,244 people who moved in.  Let’s deduct 20% for those moving within Oakland, and that leaves us 82,596 who moved into our City.  Of course, that means 82,596 also moved out of our City because our population didn’t grow.  In fact, our population receded by 18,427 in 2007; so add that to the 82,596 and we conclude that 101,023 people moved out of Oakland during 2005-2007.

            The exodus from Oakland is a 9.38% “turnover rate.”  In other words, if we could convince people not to move out of Oakland, we would expect to increase our population by 33,634 people per year.  Had the Mayor been able to do that since 2007, he could expect to have 513,701 Oakland residents and taxpayers by the end of his first term.  By the end of his second term, he would have 735,413… about the size of San Francisco.  Four years after that, we would exceed 1,000,000 people.  Now that would be a different Oakland.

         
           What Can We Do?
           
           Quit denying.

            We accept our circumstances because we expect them.