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Relevant Comparative Statistical Data on Reported Crime Rates
[February 7, 2008]

            For the purposes of this report it was felt that California cities would be more relevantly representative for comparisons of crime rates.  Arbitrarily, all cities in California over 100,000 population were studied with data specific to 2006.  The only adjustment to the data was to impose the actual sworn officer authorized strength of 803 for Oakland.

Crime Rates by Population – 62 California cities over 100,000 population:

  1. Oakland is the eighth largest in population behind Los Angeles, San Diego, San Jose, San Francisco, Long Beach, Fresno, and Sacramento.
  1. For total Part 1 reported serious offenses, including both violent and property crimes, Oakland (80.1 per thousand population) is second behind Stockton (82.9), and 95% above the California average (41.14). 
  1. For reported Violent Crimes, Oakland (19.05) is highest, followed by Stockton (14.81).  In other words, Oakland has a reported incidence of violent crime 29% higher than second place Stockton, and 252% higher than the California average.
  1. For Homicides, Oakland (.364) is second in the state, behind Richmond (.407).  Oakland’s homicide rate is 318% higher than the overall average (.087).
  1. For Robberies, Oakland (8.86) is highest in the state.  Oakland’s robbery rate is 215% higher than average (2.81).
  1. For Auto Thefts, Oakland (26.45) is highest in the state.  Oakland is 21% higher than 2nd place Richmond (21.85) and 222% higher than overall average (8.2).

Crime rates for neighboring cities:

  1. Oakland (80.1) shares the lead with Stockton (82.92) with overall reported Part 1 crimes.  Neighboring Berkeley is third (78.4), Richmond (65.2) is sixth, Vallejo (60.5) is eighth, and San Francisco (58.3) is 11th.  In other words, Oakland “reported” offenses are 2.2% higher than Berkeley, 22.9% higher than Richmond, 32.4% higher than Vallejo, and 37% higher than San Francisco.
  1. For Violent Crimes, Oakland (19.05) leads the state by far.  Richmond (11.87) is 4th, Vallejo (10.17) is 5th, San Francisco (8.76) is 8th, and Berkeley (6.36) is 19th.  Oakland Violent Crimes are 60% higher than for Richmond, 87% more than Vallejo, 117% more than San Francisco, and 200% greater than in Berkeley.
  1. For Homicides, Richmond (.407) leads the state and Oakland is second (.364).  San Francisco (.115) is 10th, Vallejo (.051) is 25th, and Berkeley (.039) is 29th.  Oakland Homicides are 1% fewer than Richmond’s, 217% greater than San Francisco, 614% more than Vallejo, and 833% higher than in Berkeley.
  1. For Robberies, Oakland (8.86) is highest in the state.  San Francisco (5.17) is 3rd, Richmond (4.89) is 4th, Berkeley (4.073) is 8th, and Vallejo (3.627) is 10th.  The Oakland Robbery rate is 71% more than San Francisco, 81% greater than in Richmond, 118% higher than Berkeley, and 144% more likely than in Vallejo.
  1. For Auto Thefts, Oakland (26.45) leads the state.  Richmond (21.85) is 2nd, Vallejo (12.79) is 6th, Berkeley (10.58) is 10th, and San Francisco (8.89) is 21st.  Oakland Auto Theft frequency is 21% higher than Richmond, 107% more than Vallejo, 144% greater than Berkeley, and 198% more likely than in San Francisco.

Crime rates related to number of police officers per population:

  1. Oakland is third in number of police per thousand population (2.01), behind San Francisco (2.95), and Los Angeles (2.42).  Long Beach was fourth (1.88), then Berkeley (1.81), followed by Fresno (1.715).  Oakland has 32% fewer cops than San Francisco, but 20% more than Berkeley, 36% more than Richmond, and 75% more than Vallejo.
  1. The average of all California cities over 100,000 population reporting is 1.32 officers per thousand population.  In other words, (a) the average California city has 65.4% the number of officers as Oakland; or, (b) Oakland has 53% more sworn officers than the average of California cities over 100,000 population.

Crime as an index representing workload per officer: 

  1. As for the workload index of total Part 1 offenses reported per officer, Oakland ranks 11th.   In other words, ten other cities report more serious crimes per officer staffed to handle them.  Oakland, at 39.78, handles 63% more offenses per officer than the overall average (24.38).
  1. For Violent Crimes reported per sworn officer, Oakland (9.46) ranks 2nd, behind Stockton (10.61).  Oakland therefore handles 43% more violent crimes per officer than the average of all cities reporting (6.63),  7% more than 3rd place Vallejo (8.87), 18% more than 6th place Richmond (8.00), 170% more than Berkeley (3.51), and 219% more than San Francisco (2.97).
  1. For reported Property Crimes per officer, Oakland (30.32) ranks 17th.  Oakland officers handle 31% less than 5th place Vallejo (43.90), 24% less than 6th place Berkeley (39.80), 16% less than 10th place Richmond (35.92), but 80% more than San Francisco (16.80).
  1. For reported Auto Thefts per Officer, Oakland (13.14) ranks second behind Richmond (13.14).  Oakland officers handle 18% more auto theft reports than Vallejo (11.15), 125% more than Berkeley (5.84) and 337% more than San Francisco (3.01).

Police staffing comparisons:

  1. Of the cities in California over 100,000 population reporting, only two, San Francisco (2.951) and Los Angeles (2.421) have more cops than Oakland (2.013).
  1. Oakland’s authorized strength of 803 officers compares favorably with the overall City average.  Oakland’s 2.013 cops /1k represent a force 19.3% greater than the average of 1.687.  Take San Francisco and Los Angeles out of the mix and Oakland has 51% more cops than the average (1.333) of the remaining California cities.
  1. Oakland has 37% more cops (2.013) than the average (1.468) of the 10 highest crime rate cities in California.
  1. Oakland has 67% more cops (2.013) than the average (1.203) of the 10 lowest crime rate cities in California.
  1. Nationally, the 13 cities (100 largest) that have a higher Part 1 crime rate than Oakland average  47% more cops per jurisdiction (2.96) than Oakland (2.013). 
  1. Nationally, for violent crimes, the ten highest crime rate cities average 80% more cops (3.625) than Oakland (2.013).

National data:

  1. Of the 8,252 cities across the country that reported 2006 offense data to the Justice Department, Oakland ranks 45th in population.  This report arbitrarily analyses the top 100 cities in population, and that spans New York (8,165,001) to San Bernadino (200,338).
  1. For overall Part 1 serious crimes reported p/1k Oakland (80.1) ranks 14th.  The average of the thirteen cities with higher reported crime rates (90.71) is 13.2% higher than Oakland.  Oakland’s experience was 37% higher than the average (58.28) of the 100 most populous cities.
  1. Unfortunately, Oakland’s Violent Crime rate (19.05) is 19% higher than the average of those worst overall crime rate cities (the thirteen cities - 16.07) mentioned in 2. above.
  1. For Violent Crimes, Oakland ranks 5th, below St. Louis (24.81), Detroit (24.19), Memphis (19.89), and Orlando (19.83).  Following Oakland is Baltimore (16.96), Philadelphia (15.62), and for reference Washington DC  (14.46) ranks 14th.  Oakland’s Violent Crime Rate is 113% higher than the 100-city average (8.94).
  1. For Homicides, Oakland (36.36 p/100k) ranked 7th, preceded by Detroit (47.26), Birmingham (44.52), Baltimore (43.29), New Orleans (37.57), Newark (37.38), and St. Louis (37.19).  The average homicide rate (42.42) for the six cities was 17% higher than Oakland’s, but Oakland’s was 184% greater than the 100-city average (12.80).

Discussion:

            The previous quantitative analysis begs for qualitative interpretation.  Oakland does indeed have a very serious crime problem.