Oakland's Crime:  Not So Bad?
[September 29, 2008]

"The FBI released its annual ‘Crime in the United States’ report Monday, based on 2007 crime statistics collected from police departments throughout the country.  The report shows a 17 percent decline in Oakland murders from the previous year, and smaller-but-consistent reductions in almost every other kind of crime. The end result is a 2 percent dip in crimes reported overall."     ...San Francisco Chronicle, and repeated by Oakland officials.

The above comment is incredible and incredulous.  To claim any sort of sunshine credit that our murders are down 17% from last year is to be in a stupor about the "Paradigm Escalation" of violence in Oakland over the past almost four years.  Remember, it's not the FBI who tells us about our own crime rates.  It's Chief Tucker who tells the FBI.

Since 2001, there have been 385 Americans killed by gunfire and other lethal means in Afghanistan (KIA).  Since 2001, there have been 847 Americans killed by gunfire and other lethal means in Oakland.  The similarity intended is that each such death was a life stolen, a future destroyed, a family grieving.  The name given to the Afghanistan campaign is Operation Enduring Freedom. 

There are officials who announce through silent megaphones that Oakland suffered more violence in the 1990's, but they seem to say it as if to excuse the violence today.  It is true that in the early 1990's there were record high numbers of violent crimes across the U.S.  Fortunately, in recent times the violence elsewhere has generally receded.  In the early 1990's, New York City reached a high of 2,606 murders, and in 2007 they had 496... a reduction of -81%.  Chicago had 2,245 murders in 1990, and that dropped to 443 in 2007... a drop of -80%.  For you "Boston Miracle" fans, it had a peak 152 murders in 1990, and in 2007 they were 65... a drop of -57%.  Los Angeles reached a high of 1,092 in 1992, and in 2007 they had 396... a reduction of -64%.  In 1991 there were 482 murders in Washington D.C., and in 2007 they had 181...  a drop of -62%.  

In 1992, Oakland set a record with 165 murders, and by 1999 murders dropped to 60... a reduction of -64%.  The problem, contrary to other large cities, is that in 2006, 2007, and 2008, Oakland has returned to the very high levels of violence.  There were 145 murders in Oakland in 2006, for an increase of +142% over the low in 1999.  In 2007, there were 120 murders, for an increase of +100%.  In 2008, we're in line for 143 murders, for an increase of +138%.

Is there no way to sober the guardians of status quo and the few self-gratuitous minions of politics and government who wallow in denial and delusion?  Citizens are afraid to walk anywhere in Oakland alone.  Restaurants lock their doors during business hours.  Parents are taking their kids out of our schools.  Moving out of Oakland is a sad parade.  Our streets are wet with the mingling of blood and tears.  Yet there are those in the media we turn to for information and those in our politics and government we turn to for guidance, all who ask us not to believe our eyes and ears, whispering softly that things are getting better... while most citizens tremble in the thunder of fear... as Oakland is mired in the obvious darkness of public safety crisis.  "Stop The Violence" is a movement crying in anguish.  Ishmael Reed, the Mayor of Oakland's Soul, talks of our "Two Summers," as we touch the pleasures in Oakland, while being tortured with razor-wire realities.

At the end of 2004 there were 82 murders that year, and it was felt that OPD Chief Richard Word should be replaced.  Brown appointed Wayne Tucker as COP in February of 2005.  In 2006, 2007, and 2008, the OPD went through the most dramatic changes in its entire history with Tucker at the controls.  An acknowledged expert in the incarceration process at ACSO, he came to Oakland as a tanker-ship captain asked to pilot an airline-747.  Knowing nothing of the instruments or controls... He vowed to rid OPD of its "Old Fashioned Practices" and to obliterate its "Culture."  He pleased Deborah Edgerly with the former, and delighted Judge Henderson and the NSA Monitors with the latter.  After fragmenting OPD with inefficiencies, and needing to find a distraction for the highest crime escalation in Oakland's history, he rearranged the deck chairs on the Titanic by dividing Oakland into three arbitrary [no plan] "Geographic Policing" areas -- thereby tripling the fragmentation of inefficiencies while steaming even faster into the icebergs.  OPD has become disconnected, disemboweled, and gloomily disheartened.  The Beats were dramatically diminished, Responses to citizen calls and Investigations were placed on the bottom of the priority ladder, and the membership of OPD, civilian and sworn, became disoriented and confused.  "De-policing" became institutionalized.

Not coincidentally, the last four years have seen the highest acceleration of Violent Crimes since 1969 when such incidents were first uniformly recorded.  Even in 1992, the only other time Oakland experienced four years of crime escalation, the cumulative increase was only +24.4% compared with Wayne Tucker's four recent years...  +60.3%!  That means that Oakland’s' recent acceleration is 146.8% steeper than we suffered during the high crime rate "crack epidemic" culminating in 1992!  

Further, the false solace of an apparent 2% reduction in the overall crime rate is the same as putting a hood on an Oakland victim who is asked to look at the good side of standing on a gallows.  Taking incredible to absurd is any notion that Oaklanders have enjoyed a reduction in overall crimes.  How can it be that there are those who tell us that we are better off, while 246 carjacking, roadside terrorism, so far this year are already +12% more than last year?  All violent crimes are on track to be +61% higher this year than just a few years ago in 2004.  Are we in pain as a burn victim being told the good news that 40% of our body is just fine?

If anyone believes OPD's "crime numbers," then the anesthesia of mis/non-information is working.  Edgerly and Tucker were joined at the hip, so to speak, and likely both (a) their efficiencies in government and (b) the credibility of their numbers are similarly questionable.  There is no credibility in any of the numbers because of the extreme pressures taking place to under-report them.  Take a look at the official Oaklandpolice.com "Historical" figures ...

- In 1970, the national figures for murders, rapes, robberies and assaults indicated that by 2006 they increased by +32%.  That's believable.
- In 1970, the Oakland figures for murders, rapes, robberies and assaults indicated that by 2004 they increased by +33%.  That's believable.
- In 1970, the Oakland figures for murders, rapes, robberies and assaults indicated that by 2006 they increased by +85%**.  That's unfortunately believable... and we should contemplate the reasons for this aberration.

**Note that in 2007 Violent Crimes remained +85% higher. In 2007 Violent Crimes went up to 7,605 from 7,599 in 2006 as per those reported by Tucker to FBI UCR.  Crime Analysis reported in-house that Violent Crimes in 2007 increased to 7,900.  Wayne Tucker noted at a Public Safety meeting that he expected them to increase to 9,000 for 2008.  The author extrapolated the 2008 Violent Crimes to increase in the neighborhood of 8,300.

-  In 1970, the national figures for Burglaries and Larcenies indicated that by 2006 they increased by +37%.  That's believable.
-  In 1970, the Oakland figures for Burglaries and Larcenies indicated that by 2006 they decreased by -57%%.  That's Unbelievable.

Just ponder the implausibility of how Oakland could have dropped from 34,005 Burglaries and Larcenies reported in 1970 to only 13,666 reported in 2007.  Do we really want to believe that there are 20,339 fewer such crimes in Oakland today? 

Oakland is a jewel, as poetically painted by Ishmael Green, for its weather. Life, and neighborhoods. We have the best people, properties, and potential.  Oakland's gems are broken and scattered among all the glistening debris on our streets... broken glass alongside all the autos of unreported crimes.  We must live up to our own potential by acknowledging reality and doing something about it.  Yes, we can.

ronoz