Oakland's Shock and Awe...
[May 22, 2008]

“Every unpunished murder takes away something from the security of everyman’s life.”  [Daniel Webster]

“It is widely recognized that if a Murder has no significant leads in the first three days, a chance for solution drops to less than 20% and almost nil after 30 days.”

            Channel 2 announced this morning that Oakland has just suffered its 55th Homicide.  What does that mean?

            First of all it means we should be shocked. 

            A person jaded to the violence in Oakland might say, "Not bad."  A straight line extrapolation indicates that, given the same numbers of Murders each week for the rest of the year, we can expect 141 murders.   We had 145 Murders in 2006.  We set the record back in 1992 with 165 Murders and we had more in 1990 (146), 1991 (149), and 1993 (154).

            A person living in the "Other Half of the City," the safer half, might yawn a moment with complacent reflection that only two bodies have been discovered above the Grove-Shafter and MacArthur Freeways, and certainly they must have been spill-over's from the "Flatlands."

            A person waiting impatiently to "Get out of Oakland,"  "Get Our Kids Out of Oakland," is likely in a panic state at this moment.  They should be.  Murders don't happen in a straight line throughout the year.  Last year at this time we had 38 Murders in Oakland, and at the end of the year we had 125.  That means that the Murders today represented 30.4% of what was still in store.  In other words, with 55 Murders as of today, Oakland may yet expect 181 Murders by the end of this year!  Yes, that is reason to panic.  The panic is becoming real because Murders are accelerating even more than the numbers might indicate.  On January 31, Oakland experienced 7 Murders compared with last year's 10.  This was proudly pointed out by the Chief (along with a 3% drop in Felony Assaults that has now turned ominously to a 9% increase).  At this rate, Oakland expected only 88 Homicides for the year.  However, since the "re-organization" to "Area Command," and the demise of the Patrol Division Beat System, the anticipated Murder Rate has gone from 88 to 181.  That's indeed a frightening testimonial.  

            This is not to say that panic is the right thing to do.  Of course not.  We have a City Government to assure us that our public safety apparatus, the Oakland Police Department, is "on the job."  They will hold the Police Chief "accountable."  After all, the current Police Chief has made "accountability" his mainstay edict in everything from his Vision Statement to his Crime Reduction "Plan."  If one looks at the latest Strategic Crime Reduction Plan offered by Chief Tucker, there is nothing in the way of a "plan" offered.  In fact, reading the Chief's early comments, it might appear that he is telling us that the "perception" of "rampant crime" is somehow mistaken because, he says, Oakland experienced "...an actual 1% reduction in crime last year."  In the past 39 months of this Chief's tenure, Murders rose about 50% above the 5-year average of his predecessor [Felony Assaults are up over 60%]. 

            In the Chief's "Plan," please read the section, "Key Issues and Impacts," [page 3] and note that Homicides aren't even mentioned [neither are Felony Assaults].  What is mentioned is, "The Department fundamentally believes that it cannot 'arrest its way out of' the crime problem."  That certainly appears obvious.  The Chief goes on to appear even more helpless when he cites other agencies must do their job, there must be other alternatives for offenders, and we must expect higher "...costs; personnel, equipment, programs, and new technology..."  There are five paragraphs in this section, and each one emphasizes what the OPD can't do.  The entire "Plan" is full of tentativeness and excuses.  Please read it.  The Chief's sense of helplessness is underscored when he says... "...the Department will ultimately fail at any effort to maintain any successes that result from these efforts." 

            The only mention of any of thinking with respect to Murders is found on page 13 of the "Plan."  The Chief proposes to increase the current 10 Homicide Investigators to 16.  There is no indication in the plan anywhere that offers anything about doing something specific, neither strategy nor tactics, for reducing Homicides.  It is if he means to avoid saying what he is perceived to say anyway - "Help!  I don't know what I'm doing.  I'm not like the previous Chiefs.  I've never worked at an urban police department before and I need more time, more money, more cops, and more other people have to do more too.  That's all I can think of."

            Think about it for a moment.  It is widely recognized that if a Murder has no significant leads in the first three days, a chance for solution drops to less than 20% and almost nil after 30 days.  If we have, as example, 180 murders and 10 Investigators, that should work out to 18 Murders per Investigator per year, or 1.5 per month.  Assuming only the mathematics involved, which means that each Investigator has 54 days in which to catch a murderer, and the rest of the year becomes increasingly "cold."  There are many complications of course.  Two Investigators often work the same case.  Murders may come in "bunches."  Some Murders have more "profile," and others are considered "routine."  Investigators get sick or otherwise fall subject to the "40%" "absentee factor."  Investigators become dissatisfied, as everyone else, and emotionally detached.  The level of training and experience continually diminishes.  Investigators are spinning in hamster wheels.  They are frustrated more by OPD leadership shortcomings and lack of support than they are of the workload.  So what can be done?

            If we are not to panic, and we shouldn't, there are literally hundreds of contributory things we can do to reduce violence in Oakland - starting immediately.

1.  Acknowledge the current Chief's inabilities and shortcomings, without prejudice, and get leadership in place that recognizes the complex matrix of organizational psychology, workload, and solutions involved.  Deputy Chief Israel is a bright light at the moment in the Bureau of Investigation, and I've seen both his brilliant thinking and almost depressive frustrations.

2.  Get the most out of current Homicide Investigators by separating and developing them into distinct Homicide and Related Violent Crimes "Sections."   Make Homicide and Related Violent Crimes Investigations a powerful force in the OPD arsenal.  Whether 10 or 16 Investigators, assign at least 2 (preferably 3) "annuitants" to each lead investigator.  These are fully experienced and retired OPD personnel who willingly work and whose cost to the City is a fraction of hiring new cops.  Assign also at least one "Assistant Investigator," a fledgling future lead Investigator, to be mentored and trained, but most of all to lend extra legs, mind, and effort to each Homicide.  Assign also two civilian Police Services Technicians to the team to handle the obvious gathering and recording of evidence, but also the monumental paperwork, follow-up calls, and staff work necessary.   Instead of one Homicide Section, expand the effort-equivalent to a Division of Homicide Sections.  Instead on one HOmicide Investigator demonstrating his ineffectiveness to the public, have a whole team showing their eagerness.

3.  Include in each Investigator Section those Felonious Assaults that could easily have become Murders.  Include also any gang related offenses, domestic violence, robbery, home invasion, car jacking, or other serious crime that might easily have become a Homicide.  They are likely to be the data base for the next Homicide.

4.  Engage the Problem Solving Officers specifically by providing them with information, making them the contact initiators, and the front line for the communities' most serious problem.

5.  Educate the entire Department that Homicides are potentially in everything we do.  Be alert, responsive, and compassionate with the communities.  Everyone on the streets for any reason should make it evident that OPD cares about Homicides, wants any information, and that we are a police force that works together for the common good.

6.  Publish a publically available weekly Newsletter on the Internet that is transparent and intended to heighten the sense of importance for Homicide Investigations and to inter-connect all the potentially related crimes and conditions into a higher consciousness for all concerned.

7.  Open the interface and intercourse of the Homicide Sections with the entire Department by encouraging open access to all qualified personnel.  Specifically, develop the most intimate information into available and meaningful formats for Beat Officers, Tactical Officers, Field Technicians, and all personnel working "the street."  Get all of OPD engaged, involved, and concerned.  The public will notice.

8.  Don't ask for more money or personnel.  That's the first sign of helplessness, and thus incompetence.  OPD has more cops overall and in the pipeline than ever in its history.  We need to get in charge and in control of the resources we have now, because the problem is now.  For at least a year, don't send anyone anywhere in the Department, especially in the Homicide Sections, to outside schools, training sessions, seminars, field trips, or junkets.  If you want a fright about this, just ask the City Auditor to take a look at where and how often we send our cops all over the place.  Emphasize for the next year or so only phone contacts, outside reading of the wealth of information available, Internet communications and conferences, and even put to task our Training Division to develop Training Bulletins, Information Bulletins, contact lists, "best practices," and the like.  Keep our Homicide Personnel "on the job."

9.  Reinstitute the Inspector rank.  Other cities, and Oakland in the past, have reserved a special Detective status to the roles of full-fledged and qualified investigators.  We can expect more from them, and they can expect more from themselves.  The public can have confidence that organizationally we place special emphasis on Investigations.

10.  Dedicate two Crime Analysts specifically to the Division as experts who read all the reports, probe the disparate efforts, gather and dissect the data, monitor the hotlines, stay near the computers, answer questions from the field, and generally be the Navigation Center for Homicides and Related Violent Crimes.

11.  Of course the obvious, get at least 70% of all OPD sworn personnel out regularly into the neighborhoods.  Dramatically increase "Police Presence."  Do a real re-organization of the entire OPD that will reduce Homicides, as done so dramatically in many other cities.  New York suffered 2,245 homicides in one year, before they replaced the Chief with an innovative leader.  Now, the rate is below 500.  While Oakland's Chief Tucker finds the murder rate in 2006 to have increased 61% over the five-year average of his predecessor, Berkeley reduced theirs 5%, Long Beach dropped 23%, Vallejo went down 16%, Washington D.C. went down 30%, Los Angeles was down 17%, New York was down 50%, and in fact all the U.S. cities over 250,000 went down 7%.  Am I cherry picking?  Yes, if you think there are other cities that actually went up.  San Francisco went up 29%, Boston went up 48% [the highest increase I could find], and San Jose went up 20%.  Oakland went up, to repeat, 61%, but probing the numbers tells a little more.  Even now [2006], Oakland has 321% the murder rate as San Francisco, 278% that of Boston, 733% that of Vallejo, 508% that of New York, and a whopping 1,178% of our neighbor San Jose. Cutting the Homicides in half, as was the rate prior to Chief Tucker, will serve to double our investigative resources to address them.

            If anyone thinks that Oakland cops aren't the best, or that they don't want to work up to their potential, or don't want to see things much better at OPD, it's because they haven't asked them (or especially the recent retirees of all ranks) and don't appreciate what they're capable of.  There is a blanket of Orwellian intimidation, negative discipline, initiative-avoidance, ennui, and a general sense of dissatisfaction about the leadership and management style of this Chief.  Morale is low and job dissatisfaction is high, not because of some bad luck or poor weather, but because of a perfect storm of incompetence, misplaced priorities, imbalances of standards, and lack of caring, in the minds of many.  The "paradigm escalation" of Violent Crime rates these past 39 months aren't a consequence of bad luck or bad weather either; they are the result of the same perfect storm.  We are in a negative vortex.

            Lastly, there doesn't appear to be much shock coming from either the OPD Chief or City Hall.  Yes, all seem to demonstrate the same sense of helplessness, manifest by their eagerness to ask for more money and more cops.  That's fine, we can use more money and more cops.  However, the problem is now.  Chief Tucker said in his last presentation, "The benchmark is set for the end of June 2009 when it is believed that the OPD will have 803 fully trained officers, and has an opportunity to adequately staff assignments directly related to addressing the perception and reality of crime."

            In other words, "I don't know what to do now, and I'm not sure what to do even 15 months from now."  Isn't this unacceptable to anyone?  Fifteen months from now the Chief will be just a couple months away from vesting for his PERS retirement (he needs a full five years).  Can't we just give it to him, or ask him to wait somewhere out of the way?  This is not personal... it is critical.

ronoz