Oakland and California Crime Report, 2007
[September 19, 2008]

The Uniform Crime Report of Part 1 Violent Offenses has been finalized for 2007, and extracting only California data for those cities with at least 100,000 population, the data are as dismal from Oakland's perspective as the national figures presented in the previous essay.

Introduction:

Oakland has undergone a paradigm leap in Violent Crimes since 2004 by any perspective.  Whether looking at these crimes sequentially or by pertinent benchmarks, they lead unavoidably to the conclusion that we are in the perilous grip of violence.  This is true whether looking at just our own historic experience, or by comparing our trends with those of other California cities.  Remember, except for San Francisco or Los Angeles, both cities with tourist uniqueness, OPD has significantly more cops than any other California city.  Recall also, that other cities, such as San Jose, have many more inhabitants reflecting the negative social conditions that contribute to crime.  It isn't easy to witness the startling facts by straining eyes at chart tabulations, so occasionally this report will endeavor to offer narrative pointers.

All reported crime numbers are per 1,000 citizens in order to compare apples with apples.  California Cities data exclude Oakland from their averages.

Table 1:  Oakland Violent Crimes compared with California cities - 2000 to 2007

-  Since 2001, California Cities sequentially reduced their Violent Crimes rates from 7.86 to 5.96, a reduction of -32%.

-  Since 2001, Oakland has increased its Violent Crimes rate from 13.50 to 19.18, an increase of +42%.

2004/2005, A "Benchmark" period for Oakland:

-  Since 2001, Oakland had decreased their Violent Crimes from 13.1 to 12.77 in 2004, a reduction of 3%; from 2005 through 2007, Oakland had sequentially increased in Violent Crimes from 12.77 to 19.18, and increase of +50%.

-  California cities enjoyed a -20.3% decrease of Violent Crimes in 2007 when compared with the five year average 2000 to 2004, and a -13.2% drop when comparing 2007 with 2004.

-  Oakland suffered a +43.5% increase in Violent Crimes over the average of the five years 2000 to 2004, and a +50.2% increase in 2007 over 2004.

-  OPD reported a small increase of +.66% in Violent Crimes for 2007 compared with 2006, but note that across California the other cities averaged a -4.03% drop.

-  While numbers aren't readily available for 2008 across the state, suffice it to note that Oakland is in store for a +9.2% increase over 2007, rising from 19.18 in 2007 to an estimated  20.95 in 2008...

Table 2:  Part 1 Crimes ranking for California Cities over 100,000.

-  Oakland in 2006 and 2007 reached the distinction of being California's most violent City.

-  In 2000 and 2001, Los Angeles was the most violent city in California.

-  In 2007, Los Angeles was ranked sixteenth in Violent Crimes in California.

-  In 2007, Oakland experienced +167% more Violent Crimes than Los Angeles [19.1/7.18]

-  In 2004, Stockton, the most violent city in California, was +5% higher in Violent Crimes than third place Oakland [13.47/12.77].

-  In 2006, Oakland was +29% higher in Violent Crimes than second place Stockton [19.05/14.81].

-  In 2007, Oakland was +33% higher in Violent Crimes than second place Stockton [19.18/14.19].

-  Oakland would have been Number One in all four sub-category rankings, except that Richmond's 47 Murders outpaced Oakland's 120 Murders when figured per 100,000 citizens. 

-  What should be incredible is that Oakland is fifth in Burglaries, behind Berkeley and Victorville, and seventeenth in Larcenies.  More likely are conclusions that in Oakland, (1) OPD places little priority for Burglaries and Larcenies, and (2) citizens have little confidence to report them.  Alarmingly, this under-reporting phenomenon extends to many citizens probably not reporting rapes, robberies or assaults either.

Table 3:  Oakland Violent Crimes compared for differentials with California cities over 100,000.

Just as was noticed in the related essay comparing Oakland with National Cities, the differentials are astounding and revealing.  While California cities have sequentially enjoyed decreases in the Violent Crimes rates, Oakland began to jump dramatically after 2004. 

-  In 2000, Oakland had a Violent Crime rate 73.1% greater than the California average. 

-  By 2007, Oakland reached an astounding 222% greater incidence of Violent Crimes than the rest of the state.

Table 4:  Oakland Violent Crimes compared with Richmond: 

This is an unavoidable comparison because so many people insist on anecdotally generalizing similarities between these two cities.

Review first a repeat of Oakland's numbers...

Richmond's numbers are revealing...

-  Violent Crimes in Richmond are actually -5% down when compared with 2000 [12.48/11.91], whereas Oakland witnessed a +42% increase [13.50/19.18].

-  Richmond's Violent Crimes have remained in a relatively narrow range, while Oakland's have obviously skyrocketed after 2004.

Table 5:  Comparing Oakland and Richmond Violent Crimes differentials:

Oakland is widening the gap of Violent Crimes, dramatically outpacing Richmond in 2006 and 2007. 

-  In 2000, Oakland had a Violent Crime rate 8.2% higher than Richmond's.

-  By 2007, the differential increased to 61.1%.

Table 6:  Oakland Violent Crimes compared with cities over 100,000, within commuting distance - 2007.

Oakland is far and away the most violent city among the sixteen cities that are arguably within commuting distance of Oakland.

-  Oakland residents and citizens in 2007 stood a 159% greater chance of being victimized by Violent Crimes; 23% more for Murder, 186% greater for Rape, 171% for Robberies, and 146% for being assaulted.

-  Sunnyvale is the safest [1.18 Violent Crimes per thousand], followed by Daly City 2.91].   

-  With respect to Violent Crimes, Oakland is 537% more dangerous than Fremont.

Table 7:  Oakland compared with cities over 100,000, within commuting distance - 2004/2007.

-  The bad news:  The sixteen cities arguably within commuting distance to Oakland suffered a 10.29% increase in Violent Crimes between 2004 and 2007.

-  The worse news:  Oakland's increase in Violent Crimes was almost five times greater than the neighbor cities.

Table 8:  Comparing the 5 Most Violent Cities in California with Oakland - 2004/2007.

This is perhaps the most telling data of all.  Taking the 5 "Most Violent Cities" in California in 2004 [besides Number 3 Oakland], and looking at them again just three years later in 2007, we note the extent of Oakland's public safety failures.  Surely these cities faced the same demographic issues, the same economic issues, and the same challenges for their police departments. 

-  Violent crimes as an average for the 5 most violent California cities decreased by -22.91% between 2004 and 2007.

-  Violent Crimes in Oakland increased by +50.21% from 2004 to 2007.

Table 9:  Comparing differentials with the five most violent California cities - 2004/2007.

-  In 2004 Oakland's Violent Crime rate was -5% less than Stockton and in 2007 it was +35% higher.

-  In 2004 Oakland's Violent Crime rate was +15% greater than Los Angeles and in 2007 it was +167% higher.

-  From 2004 to 2007, Oakland's Violent Crimes rate increased +50.2%, from 12.77 per thousand to 19.18 per thousand.

-  From 2004 to 2007, Los Angeles' Violent Crimes rate decreased -35.1%, from 11.07 per thousand to 7.18 per thousand.

Violent Crimes per Thousand:

Table 10:  Comparing Violent Crimes differentials with Stockton. 

Why compare with Stockton?  Stockton has been dealing with considerable population growth, much of it with demographic and social conditions that have been challenging.

-  Stockton in 2004 was the Number One Violent Crimes City in California.  

-  By the end of 2004, Oakland's Violent Crimes were -5.2% less than Stockton.

-  By the end of 2007, Oakland's Violent Crimes were 35.2% greater than Stockton.

-  In 2006 and 2007, Stockton sequentially decreased their Violent Crimes rates.

-  In 2007 and 2007, Oakland sequentially increased their Violent Crimes rates.

Conclusion:

Prior to 2005, our violent crime rates were perhaps too high, but they were within a range that was relatively consistent with experiences elsewhere.  Since 2005, violence in Oakland took a direction of its own...  an unwarranted acceleration upward to a crisis condition that can only be called a level of "Paradigm Escalation."

Appreciating that it is tempting to make generalizations about "crime going up in other cities," the author chose to view Violent crimes from a variety of perspectives.  While there may be some cities and some categories of Violent Crimes that have noticed increases, none has so consistently or dramatically increased as in Oakland since 2004.  The 2004 benchmark was a simple and obvious choice to make because the Oakland Police Department has undergone the most intensive changes arguably in its entire history since Chief Tucker's appointment. 

No matter what perspective of measurement, or which comparatives are used, Oakland, since the appointment of Chief Tucker and the imposition of his dramatic OPD changes, has accelerated to become notoriously the most Violent City in California.  

It is better to dwell on solutions, but without overcoming denial, excuses, rationalizations and other comforts of mediocrity, there will be no rehabilitation.  It is beyond any reasonable standard of proof that Oakland, whether compared locally, statewide, or nationally, is in a serious "crime bubble."  That is to say, we have experienced Violent Crimes since 2005 in such an inordinate acceleration that it defies any correlation with negative social factors.  In other words, we can't blame the state of violence in Oakland on anything but ourselves.

…Our management of crime and public safety has failed. 

ronoz