Oakland is a National Crime Center
The 2007 Numbers Are In
2008 Almost Over and Worse
[September 18, 2008]

This essay is not for those looking for brevity.  Unfortunately the champions of brevity, those who claim Oakland's crime is "under control," or actually decreasing, don't offer “intelligence” information.  The sources for the following statistics were taken from the Department of Justice Uniform Crime Reports for 2007 and prior years and OPD’s Crime Analysis.  There is a lot to digest, and this data is only the tip of the iceberg.  This material is not suitable for posting on Internet Groups, and will be available on ronoz.com.

It should be unavoidable to conclude that Oakland is in a crisis situation regarding the Violence, that this dire situation is contrary to experiences elsewhere, and that we can and must do something about it.  We must reject the distractions.  Oakland is not naturally and uncontrollably crime prone.  It is not that we need more cops or facilities.  It is not that the NSA has handcuffed our police.  It is certainly not that we should give the Chief's ad hoc [no plan] "Geographic Policing" and 12-hour shifts "more time."  What's been done with OPD over the past four years has been a continuing and increasing failure. 

Getting your attention:

- Chief Word started the decade with 5,754 Violent Crimes having occurred in 1999, and finished his tenure in 2004 with 5,151... a decrease of -10.5% five years later.

- Chief Tucker started his job in 2005 with 5,151 Violent Crimes having occurred in 2004, and will finish 2008 with 8,300... an increase of +61.1% four years later.

- Oakland was in a certain range from 2000 to 2004, and then jumped dramatically each year since to culminate in 2008 with the highest Violent Crimes rate  in a decade.  Whereas Nationally, the Violent crimes decreased steadily, and 2007 witnessed the lowest Violent Crimes in this decade.

- Since Chief Tucker's "re-organization" went fully to 12-hour shifts and three Precincts [Geographic Policing] at the start of 2008, the Violent Crimes jumped another 9.2% over 2007. 

- In 2004, the 17 cities with higher Violent Crime rates than Oakland averaged +21% more Violent Crimes.  By 2007, this reversed completely, and Oakland experienced +27% more Violent crimes than the same 17 cities.

- St. Louis was Number One for Violent Crimes in 2006, followed in order by Detroit, Memphis, and Oakland.  It's a good bet that Oakland could become The Number One most Violent City in America in 2008 [see Table 6 below].

- As of September 17, Oakland had 102 Murders and 5,917 Violent Crimes.  By the end of 2008 it is likely to have 143 Murders and 8,300 Violent Crimes...

- Other cities would likely declare a state of emergency if they suffered Oakland's 2007 or 2008 Violent Crime rates.

1.  New York had 496 Murders and 50,453 Violent Crimes in 2007.  If it had to suffer Oakland's current rates, it could expect 2,488 Murders [+317%] and 157,650 Violent Crimes [+212%] this year. 

2.  Los Angeles had 395 Murders and 27,806 Violent Crimes.  If it had to suffer Oakland's current rates, it could expect 1,171 Murders [+196%] and 74.230 Violent Crimes [+167%].

3   San Francisco had 100 Murders and 6,414 Violent Crimes.  If it had to suffer Oakland's rates, it could expect 222 Murders [+122%] and 14,073 Violent Crimes [+119%].

4.  San Jose had 33 Murders and 3,759 Violent Crimes.  If it had to suffer Oakland's rates, it could expect 283 Murders [+758%] and 17,923 Violent Crimes [+377%].

- In 1999, when Oakland experienced 60 Murders for the entire year, Mayor Brown announced that Oakland's Violent Crime rate would soon be less than Walnut Creek's.  In 2007, Walnut Creek had 90 Violent Crimes; if it suffered Oakland's rate it would have 1,219.  In other words, it would have to experience an overnight +1,254% increase in Violent Crimes before its citizens had to live under the same public safety conditions as in Oakland.

Better Comparisons: 

On January 1, 2005, in Oakland, the prior year's experience was 83 Murders and 5,151 Violent Crimes.  Mayor Brown had insisted on an across the board crime reduction of 20%, and thus Chief Richard Word was already gone.  On February 4, 2005, Brown appointed Wayne G. Tucker and gave him the hopeful task of reducing Oakland's high crime rate.  

Table 1 Oakland Violent Crimes this decade:

- Chief Word started the decade with 5,754 Violent Crimes having occurred in 1999, and finished his tenure in 2004 with 5,151... a decrease of -10.5%.

- Chief Tucker started his job in 2005 with 5,151 Violent Crimes having occurred in 2004, and will finish 2008 with 8,300... an increase of +61.1%.
  

[Note that the 2008 estimates are based on the latest September 17, 2008 experience.  The 2008 Oakland population is likely to be determined much lower, thus raising the numbers.  Chief Tucker mentioned in a recent meeting that he expected the Violent Crimes to reach 9,000, but the author prefers the more conservative, 8,307 extrapolation.]

National Comparisons:  Those ready to believe that crime went down in Oakland in 2007, might be shocked to see the truth.

- At the end of 2004, Oakland was listed as Eighteenth in ranking for Violent Crimes among National Cities over 250,000. The following chart is condensed and offers comparisons between Oakland and the other 17 cities that had higher crime rates in 2004. 

Violent Crimes: In 2004, the 17 cities with higher Violent Crime rates than Oakland averaged +21% more Violent Crimes.  By 2007, this reversed completely, and Oakland experienced +27% more Violent crimes than the same 17 cities.  While the other 17 cities reduced their Violent Crimes rate by -2% between 2004 and 2007, Oakland had increased by +50%.  Over the one year period 2006-2007, the other cities reduced their Violent Crimes by -5.4%, while Oakland increased +.7%.  

Since Chief Tucker's "re-organization" went fully to 12-hour shifts and three Precincts [Geographic Policing] at the start of 2008, the Violent Crimes jumped another 9.2% over 2007. 

Table 2:  2007 Violent Crime per 1000 population:  Oakland compared with seventeen cities that had higher crime rates in 2004.

Table 3:  Violent Crime per 1000 population:  Oakland compared with all National Cities over 250,000 population. [numbers per 1,000k]

Oakland was in a certain range from 2000 to 2004, and then jumped dramatically each year since to culminate in 2008 with the highest in Violent Crimes rate in a decade.  Whereas Nationally, the Violent crimes decreased steadily, and 2007 witnessed the lowest Violent Crimes in this decade.

Most disheartening is that Oakland's Violent Crime rate in 2007 jumped to the highest differential in this decade.  In other words, while the National Violent Crimes rate has gone down, Oakland's has gone up in perilous contradiction.

Table 4:  Differentials showing the extent Oakland's Violent Crime rate is greater than the National averages.  [numbers per 1,000k.]

Specific examples:  For those who insist on dulling the senses by stating that Oakland is naturally a "crime-ridden" city that cannot help itself, and thus the only answer is to employ more police, the following examples might offer a different view to the audience.  New York and Los Angeles, under Chief Bratton' expert influence, have continuously decreased their Violent Crime rates because he is an ardent adherent to the notion that comprehensive numbers and thorough analysis are critically necessary in research, planning, organization and management. San Jose, a City within biking distance of Oakland, has much more of the crime prone demographics and yet has managed to keep Violent Crimes down to less than half of Oakland's with two and a half times the population.

**The aberration in New York's 2001 Murder rate below was due to 9/11. 

Table 5:  Violent Crimes selected cities this decade, per thousand population.

Another National comparison:

One National comparison cannot be avoided.  It was mentioned previously that Oakland was Eighteenth in the ranking for Violent Crimes at the start of 2005.  Oakland leapfrogged to Number Four in 2006, and maintained that Number Four position in 2007.  In fact, the three Cities rated more violent than Oakland in 2006 reduced their Violent Crimes in 2007, while Oakland's increased further.  St. Louis was Number One in 2006, followed in order by Detroit, Memphis, and Oakland.

Note that from 2006 to 2007 that St, Louis, Detroit, and Memphis, all reduced their Violent Crimes rates.  Oakland's rose.  If these cities reduce their 2008 rates the same drop as in 2007, then St. Louis will experience 19.48 Violent Crimes per thousand; Detroit/ 21.66; and Memphis/ 19.13.  As stated, Oakland in 2008 will likely suffer 20.95.  This assures Oakland the distinction of rising to Number Two Nationally.  However, if Oakland's population in 2008 is determined to be 378,000 as the Census trend seems to indicate, then the Violent Crime rate will be 21.98 -- and Oakland will have the notoriety of being Number One for Violent Crimes in the United States. 

Table 6:  The Four Most Violent Cities in America. 

Table 7:  Comparing National Cities of Comparable Size.

The Chief's April 22 "Comprehensive Crime Prevention Plan" illustrated, without explanation, how Oakland compared with other cities for populations between 350,000 and 450,000.  Oakland's Violent Crimes rate is the highest of all these cities in 2006 or 2007, and it is more than double the averages for all the cities.

Note that Oakland and Wichita are the only two cities to experience an increase in 2007.  Oakland's Violent Crimes rate is more than twice as high as Wichita's. 

Conclusion:

The FBI UCR warns against comparing directly with other cities.  This report has not done so.  Rather, a more generic approach was taken to highlight secular trends and category comparisons. 

            There is a profound difference between making statements such as “Crime is going up all over” or blaming our violence on generalized rationalizations or excuses. 
Parolees, gangs, poverty, unemployment, police unions, staffing, and other factors may indeed affect violence in any jurisdiction.  However, effective leadership and management are recognized by an ability to appraise and contend with these issues.  A Chief of Police does so by meticulously sizing these knowable coefficients with intricate research and demonstrated awareness.  Thus, a real “plan,” with identifiable objectives, strategies, and tactics can be measured going in, during application, coming out, and moving on. 

            Going to “Geographic Policing,” 12-hour shifts, eliminating the OPD Jail, Beat Health, P & R, and diminishing Response and Investigations in favor of “Hot Spot” deployments and “fluid teams,” along with other major dismantling changes at OPD were all done without formulated information and thus in a darkness void of planning. 

It is regretful to have to list so many tables and data to make the point...  We are in a most serious violence situation.  We must not join the delusion that Oakland is doing "all right."  Unless we get some people to become familiar with the reality in these numbers it is unlikely that Oakland will do what it must.  We don't need to panic, because cooler and more expert minds can prevail if politically allowed.

What we must do now is learn from the data that we don’t have to be the lone exception with respect to hopeless unrestrained violence.  We can and must take appropriate steps.  Oakland is singularly unique, and thus we cannot borrow “best practices” from elsewhere.  We must not toss out our “old practices,” but rather build on them with knowing innovation.  We must not rip out the OPD culture, but strive to build the highest standards of professionalism within it.   We must not disorganize, fragment or demoralize our OPD, but rather create a concert of effective efforts and inspiring confidence.  We can replace the stipulations of lawlessness in Oakland with an expectation of real public safety in all our neighborhoods.

Six Steps:

1.  We get confirmed real information.

2.  We get local expert analysis of it, making it relevant and credible for Oakland and OPD.

3.  We formulate a real comprehensive plan that combines connecting the dots of history and those of innovation going forward.

4.  We restore morale, motivation and productivity of all OPD personnel.

5.  We constantly measure, question, fine-tune, and remain flexible.

6.  We fully, regularly, and transparently communicate, engage, and accept input.

While it took almost four years to reach the sad and dangerous state of affairs where we find ourselves today, we can make giant strides beginning almost immediately.

ronoz